BS: Republicans trying to steal the election

Subject: BS: Republicans trying to steal the election
From: GUEST,MM
Date: 02 Nov 04 - 09:08 AM

Republicans farting in line

It has just been reported by the Michael Moore that his army of volunteer camera people are witnessing Republicans farting in line in Ohio and Florida in an attempt to repel Democrats and disenfranchise them. They are unable to capture the actual criminal act because the farts are invisible.

When the Democrats start gagging and running toward the door, the Republicans are claiming it is just and act to try to implicate them in a non-existent plot.

The Republicans are very clever at masking the sound by talking loudly during the actual fart. It is rumored that Republicans were phoned instructions by RNC operatives last night to eat plenty of beans to prepare for this fart block at the polling places.

Every red blooded Democrat is urged to go to your polling place and smell the air in order to document this blatant, last ditch effort of the Republicans to steal the election again.

MM

Subject: RE: BS: Republicans trying to steal the election
From: GUEST,marks
Date: 02 Nov 04 - 09:11 AM

Democrats have retaliated by refraining from bathing before they line up at the polling places. Independent poll watchers have noted, however, that they have noticed nothing out of the ordinary.

Subject: RE: BS: Republicans trying to steal the election
From: GUEST,MM
Date: 02 Nov 04 - 09:17 AM

That is even moore insidious. Once again the Democrats have outdone the Republicans.

MM

Subject: RE: BS: Republicans trying to steal the election
From: Jack the Sailor
Date: 02 Nov 04 - 12:25 PM

In an even more insidious voter supression technique. Recordings of Michael more arguing with Bill O'Reilly are driving nearly everyone from polls in the deep south, including the Florida panhandle.   Nader voters are protecting themselves with portable music devices, mp3 players and walkman's. A Nader victory is now projected in Alabama, Georgia and Missippi. The technique was not attempted is Southern Florida, where many Kerry voters have the option of turning off their hearing aids.

Subject: RE: BS: Republicans trying to steal the election
From: Ellenpoly
Date: 02 Nov 04 - 12:29 PM

Well glad to see humour is alive and well and crossing partisan lines here at MC.

Carry on...today I need all the laughs I can get.

..xx..e

Subject: RE: BS: Republicans trying to steal the election
From: GUEST,MM
Date: 02 Nov 04 - 06:52 PM

Eat Beans, Fart a lot, Vote Kerry

MM

Subject: RE: BS: Republicans trying to steal the election
From: Cluin
Date: 02 Nov 04 - 06:59 PM

Do yer doody!

Subject: RE: BS: Republicans trying to steal the election
From: GUEST,MM
Date: 03 Nov 04 - 12:04 AM

Scratch balls, Pick Ass, Vote Kerry.

MM

Subject: RE: BS: Republicans trying to steal the election
From: GUEST,Grundthamer
Date: 16 May 05 - 10:38 PM

Dave - This is what you might call open source political analysis. But
what's needed is open access to the public data that we as citizens have
paid for! This team - four statisticians and a political scientist -
collaborated remotely much of this year on analyzing the 2004 presidential
election exit poll data. It's the strongest study of its kind I've seen.

They have run multiple simulations with sensitivity analysis to assess the
Edison/Mitofsky hypotheses about Democratic vs. Republican exit poll
responders, and definitively reject their hypothesis. They statistically
support that the most plausible explanation supported by simulation was a
significant vote "shift" from Kerry to Bush.

They emphasize that: "Simulations are only used in the absence of detailed
source data. Edison/Mitofsky could help us resolve the lingering
questions about exit poll discrepancies by releasing the data to enable us
to directly measure - rather than infer - precinct level variance between
poll results and official vote tallies." Link to report at bottom of post.
Press contact in press release.

Peter Jones
http://redesignresearch.com


>From the Abstract:

New evidence from mathematical simulations conclusively shows that any
constant mean exit poll response bias hypothesis such as the "reluctant Bush
responder" (rBr) hypothesis is not consistent with the pattern shown by the
Edison/Mitofsky exit polling data. Other explanations are required to
explain the Edison/Mitofsky pattern of exit poll discrepancies and overall
response rates.

US Count Votes' simulations have demonstrated that exit poll patterns in the
November 2004 presidential election could be produced by an exit poll
response bias distribution with constant mean if accompanied by shifting of
votes cast for Kerry to Bush; or alternatively, the patterns could be
caused by a differential pattern of exit poll response bias that would
require further explanation.


FROM THE PRESS RELEASE

2004 Presidential Election: Hypotheses of Fraud Remain Credible; New
Scientific Study Released

[e-mail] electionarchive.org

The persistence of credible hypotheses of election fraud, six months after
the election, underscores the fragility of the U.S. electoral system. US
Count Votes continues its systematic statistical study of the discrepancy
between the Edison-Mitofsky exit polls and November's reported presidential
election results.

Miami, FL. - Ron Baiman, Ph.D. of US Count Votes and the Institute of
Government and Public Affairs of Chicago, will release the new results
at the meeting of the American Association of Political Opinion Researchers
today, Saturday at a 2:15 p.m. Press Conference in the Hotel
Fontainebleau Hilton Resort lobby, 4441 Collins Avenue, Miami Beach, FL
33140.

Mitofsky, of the Edison/Mitofsky group who released an analysis on January
19th of their November 2nd exit poll that had predicted a strong
win for Kerry, will also be in attendance at the AAPOR conference.

The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) today has released a new report,
demonstrating that data from the Edison/Mitofsky analysis is
consistent with the hypothesis of a corrupted vote count, and inconsistent
with the competing idea that Bush voters were under-sampled
in the poll. Using numerical modeling techniques to simulate the effect of
polling bias, NEDA scientists are able to reproduce signature
patterns in the Edison/Mitofsky data by incorporating a general shift in the
official vote tally in the model.

Most telling is the fact that the highest participation rates and the peak
disparity between poll and official returns both occurred in precincts where
Bush made his strongest showing. This feature of the data is inconsistent
with the Edison/Mitofsky assumption that polling bias was responsible for
the gap.

For the complete report, see
http://uscountvotes.org/ucvAnalysis/US/exit-polls/USCV_exit_poll_simulations
.pdf

This paper follows an earlier study released on March 31, 2005, by a group
of statisticians for the National Election Data Archive Project, Analysis of
the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies.

Subject: RE: BS: Republicans trying to steal the election
From: GUEST, Ebbie
Date: 16 May 05 - 11:12 PM

Methinks someone neglected to read the other posts... *G*

Subject: RE: BS: Republicans trying to steal the election
From: GUEST,TIA
Date: 17 May 05 - 10:40 PM

Yes, but it's worth reminding people that there are very well documented, and extremely robust (i.e. they are not subtle noise in the data) statistical anomalies in the 2004 voting pattern data that have not been explained, and the data that could explain them is not being released.

Subject: RE: BS: Republicans trying to steal the election
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 18 May 05 - 04:27 AM

Surely the statistical question is deeply worrying and ought not to be frivolously disregarded.